FDU 2/18/20

Lets talk some Hoops!
User avatar
ccsuhoops
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 3958
Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:10 pm

FDU 2/18/20

Post by ccsuhoops » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:00 am

Starting the thread because I believe, if my math is correct, that a SFBK win or a CCSU loss puts us out of our misery this evening.
npfy.jpg

Come back...ONE year!

CCSU4-3
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 954
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:55 am

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by CCSU4-3 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:54 am

I think you may be forgetting that Merrimack is ineligible for the NEC Tournament. Therefore Bryant is the team we need to catch, as they're currently in 9th place but would be the 8th seed in the NECT.

Bryant is 3 games up in the loss column on CCSU with 5 to play (4 for CCSU). However, the Bulldogs are likely to own the tie-breaker thanks to their win over SFU.

We would need to go 3-1 over our final 4 games and Bryant to go 0-5. Unless we somehow beat Merrimack on 2/27 (and Bryant loses to them tonight), at which point we could finish tied with Bryant and make the NECT, assuming MC finishes ahead of SFU.

Does that make sense?

GameDay
CCSU FANS Recruit
CCSU FANS Recruit
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:35 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by GameDay » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:15 pm

So the dream is still alive!!!

CCSU4-3
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 954
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:55 am

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by CCSU4-3 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:22 pm

If you operate under the premise that CCSU needs to finish 5-13 to tie with Bryant:

Odds of CCSU winning 5 or more games, per Bart Torvik: 3.3%
Odds of Bryant winning 5 or fewer games: 15.5%
Odds of both things happening: 0.5%

To compound that further, we have just a 6% chance of beating Merrimack on 2/27.

But hey, yup there's still a CHANCE.

Btw, average Game Score by month:
Nov- 4.0
Dec- 10.8
Jan- 7.4
Feb- 26.6

This team is finally getting better. 4 of their best 5 games have occurred since January 25th, and they've moved all the way up to #347 at Kenpom, their highest ranking since beginning the season at #345.

No, they still aren't GOOD, and no I see no way they can do anything close to enough to make the NECT. But at least there's so momentum heading into next season, assuming the coaching staff and roster return largely intact.

GameDay
CCSU FANS Recruit
CCSU FANS Recruit
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:35 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by GameDay » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:54 pm

Wow. On are way to that .5% chance

GameDay
CCSU FANS Recruit
CCSU FANS Recruit
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:35 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by GameDay » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:36 pm

That was as close as it gets. Love college basketball. Some amazing passes and moves in first half.

User avatar
Larryl9797
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 1184
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:24 pm
Location: Central Connecticut
Contact:

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by Larryl9797 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:56 am

assuming the coaching staff and roster return largely intact
That will be the question of the month for March. ( last game is Feb 29th )
“You can be as talented as you want, but if you don’t play together and as a team, you’re not going to win.” -Donyell Marshall 1-21-2019

CCSU4-3
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 954
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:55 am

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by CCSU4-3 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:01 am

Larryl9797 wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:56 am
assuming the coaching staff and roster return largely intact
That will be the question of the month for March. ( last game is Feb 29th )
Assuming Marshall returns, I'll go on record as saying we lose 4 scholarship players from this roster (Rowe is a walk-on):
Coleman (senior)
Udofia (he is still listed on the roster but hasn't been on the bench and is no longer listed in the Game Notes)
One rotation player
One non-rotation player

If we lose more than one rotation guy, we should consider it another disaster in a line of disasters.

User avatar
ccsuhoops
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 3958
Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:10 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by ccsuhoops » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:54 am

My feeling is there is no way DM doesn't return. Toro will never waste 149k for athletics. Starting to worry about her honestly. That said, Rowe is no loss, Coleman hasn't played much in the last two games and look at the results, coincidence? I think not. Some light twitter stalking can see most of the players appear to be happy. I don't see a mass defection. I think these kids bought in. Parents in the stands don't appear to be barking about the coach. Besides, they are on the worst team in the country ( almost), where are they going to go? Unless they want to play down and I doubt they will want that. DM needs to get a serviceable big man or at least a monster rebounder and a point guard and get us to double digit wins next season.

User avatar
BigBlue92
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 336
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 8:32 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by BigBlue92 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:08 am

I can tell you that the coaching staff is not expecting a mass exodus of this current freshman class. They feel that they have something special with this group. Donyell will be back next year. No doubt. So let's stay positive and hope that this program takes a big step forward next year.

J.J.
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 4279
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 10:52 am
Location: Washington, DC

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by J.J. » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:31 am

I'll say it - if DM returns there is no excuse other than lack of money or institutional will.

No objective observer can say we are on the right path. A 2-game win streak is meaningless right now. CCSU is on par for missing the NEC tourney for the 2nd year in a row and the 5th time in the last 7 seasons. The only thing we have accomplished in 4 seasons is a single conference tourney appearance and another QF loss.

DM has a record of 35-85 heading into the final games this year. He has complied three 20+ loss seasons. Right now, he has a lower winning percentage than Mark Adams. Why do we think year 5 will be that much better than the last 4 years?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... aches.html

After the buzzer sounds at the finale vs. St. Francis Brooklyn, we should give DM a standing ovation and publicly thank him. The next day we should issue a press release to announce our decision to open up a National search for a new head coach.

It is delusional to put this decision off for another season. Too much has happened in the past 4 seasons to suggest next year the program will be appreciably better off.

hilltopper
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 1527
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2008 9:42 am

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by hilltopper » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:34 pm

Hey we got a two game winning streak!
...and all you guys said things were bad #-o

User avatar
ccsuhoops
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 3958
Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:10 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by ccsuhoops » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:28 pm

J.J. wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:31 am
I'll say it - if DM returns there is no excuse other than lack of money or institutional will.

No objective observer can say we are on the right path. A 2-game win streak is meaningless right now. CCSU is on par for missing the NEC tourney for the 2nd year in a row and the 5th time in the last 7 seasons. The only thing we have accomplished in 4 seasons is a single conference tourney appearance and another QF loss.

DM has a record of 35-85 heading into the final games this year. He has complied three 20+ loss seasons. Right now, he has a lower winning percentage than Mark Adams. Why do we think year 5 will be that much better than the last 4 years?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... aches.html

After the buzzer sounds at the finale vs. St. Francis Brooklyn, we should give DM a standing ovation and publicly thank him. The next day we should issue a press release to announce our decision to open up a National search for a new head coach.

It is delusional to put this decision off for another season. Too much has happened in the past 4 seasons to suggest next year the program will be appreciably better off.
For the record, TOTALLY agree. Just don't see our pres caring enough and definitely not willing to waste a year of contract money to him. He'll be back.

User avatar
BigBlue92
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 336
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 8:32 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by BigBlue92 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:31 pm

J.J. wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:31 am
I'll say it - if DM returns there is no excuse other than lack of money or institutional will.

No objective observer can say we are on the right path. A 2-game win streak is meaningless right now. CCSU is on par for missing the NEC tourney for the 2nd year in a row and the 5th time in the last 7 seasons. The only thing we have accomplished in 4 seasons is a single conference tourney appearance and another QF loss.

DM has a record of 35-85 heading into the final games this year. He has complied three 20+ loss seasons. Right now, he has a lower winning percentage than Mark Adams. Why do we think year 5 will be that much better than the last 4 years?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... aches.html

After the buzzer sounds at the finale vs. St. Francis Brooklyn, we should give DM a standing ovation and publicly thank him. The next day we should issue a press release to announce our decision to open up a National search for a new head coach.

It is delusional to put this decision off for another season. Too much has happened in the past 4 seasons to suggest next year the program will be appreciably better off.
I think the issue is more complex. The question we need to ask ourselves is, "Do we think that we have something in this freshman class?" I can tell you that the coaching staff thinks that this group is going to turn into something very special. If Donyell is fired at the end of the season we must be willing to accept that there will likely be a mass exodus of these players. We'll be starting over from scratch AGAIN. I'm willing to see what the coaching staff can do with this current group. Personally, I love how this group has progressed.

User avatar
ccsuhoops
CCSU Fans Know it all
CCSU Fans Know it all
Posts: 3958
Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:10 pm

Re: FDU 2/18/20

Post by ccsuhoops » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:15 pm

I've always said, DM can see talent. Not sure he can develop it yet but that said, and I'm sure there is some stat out there that can tell me they aren't good enough but what I SEE on the court:

Outlaw, kid has skills. Def enough for the NEC
Tennyson: kid can shoot
Baker: Kid EXPLODED last week. Couldn't miss, total zone. Gonna be a good one
Wilson: I like him too. Needs to be developed but has skills
Reed: Has the ability to take over a game as well, did so not to long ago
Ola: DM's killing him. Wasted a year that could have developed him. Total project but now we are down a year.
Udolfia: Appears gone

So yes, a quick run down in between meetings, I like this group. Add rebounding, more ball movement and a pg

Post Reply