NYC Buckets Preview

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NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:59 am

NYCbuckets is starting its previews, and today our Blue Devils were featured. It's a great write-up by RyGuy, and anyone interested in CCSU hoops should go over and read it.

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2017/09/34-pr ... nnecticut/

The theme, IMO, was versatility. DM realized how important versatility is, and did something about it.
With offensive firepower and versatility as the two major things the Blue Devils lacked last season, Marshall sure did his best to address them. CCSU finished 335th nationally in offensive efficiency, scoring just 92.9 points per 100 possessions, while struggling to impose their will around the paint as evident by a 44.6% two-point field goal percentage.
DM brought in guys who can do multiple things. Camacho is a PG, but can play off the ball and shoot. Hugley is a big, but a very good shooter. Hicks same thing. Kohl is going to be a matchup problem, whether he's at the 3 or the 4.

I do not believe a basketball team in 2017 can be successful with fewer than three perimeter shooters on the floor at one time. Three pointers are more efficient, and provide spacing for drives to the hoop/points in the paint.

[Edit: in the conclusion, he meant 4 NON-CONFERENCE wins, not 4 overall.]

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by ccsuhoops » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:33 am

I'm sorry but anything less than an home playoff game is a fail for me. Sick of baby steps in all of our friggen programs. The time is now to stop sucking. I'll give my official prediction later on but I was pretty darn close last year if i do say so myself...

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:29 am

ccsuhoops wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:33 am
I'm sorry but anything less than an home playoff game is a fail for me. Sick of baby steps in all of our friggen programs. The time is now to stop sucking. I'll give my official prediction later on but I was pretty darn close last year if i do say so myself...
Hoops...I can understand your disappointment in the program. It sucks to see the win totals these last few years. Not what we are used to.

I care less about the win total this year (assuming it's more than 6), and more about how it happened.

Last year people kept calling the team young, and it kept annoying me. KC, Tafari and Pierre were all seniors. Moose and Seymour were juniors. Batiste was really the only frosh who could have even been considered a role player.

This year? Also NOT THAT YOUNG! Our best players (probably) are Nehls (junior), Kohl (junior) and Moose? (senior). If the team is bad this year, with only one graduating player, who is to say the team will be any good next year? Will mostly be the same roster (assuming we get no defections).

Next year is "the year", in terms of CCSU men's basketball becoming relevant. To me, the goal is a home game in the 2019 NEC tourney, not 2018. Let's let this roster gel and work the kinks out this year. Then make a run next year.

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by hilltopper » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:03 pm

I expect a substantial improvement this year. I think this is realistic. DM has recruited to correct the flaws of last year, especially perimeter shooting.
Central should be much improved, that combined with the transfer plague which has weakened last years good NEC teams, could put Central in the competitive mix. I am looking for double digit wins and an NEC tournament berth.

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:51 pm

A couple more previews are out:

https://sportsaction.io/blog/college-ba ... nside-the/

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/10 ... conference

The first had picked us 8th, while MidMajor Madness picked us 9th. I included the Sportsaction site because the write-up was pretty thorough.

The main thing I took out of it:
If JUCO transfer Tyler Kohl-Ross is as good on the wing as Marshall thinks he'll be, he'll likely lead the team in scoring thanks to his versatility.
I've thought all along that Kohl is the key to our season. If he's a stud, good things will likely happen.

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by Larryl9797 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:16 pm

Anyone got a status on Talik Williams? Boot on/off ? Is he practicing?
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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by hilltopper » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:19 pm

I look at last years team and there was one major flaw...no outside shooting. The defense had an easy formula to follow, take away Nehls. I think that if last years team had another 35+% three pt shooter there would have been a lot more W's. From what i understand, DM's priority was to remedy that flaw and this team has a number of outside shooters. If that is indeed the case I think that there could be a vast improvement, maybe a .500 team or at least double digit wins.
Well I guess I am an optimist, is anyone else?

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by J.J. » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:34 pm

Hilltoper, I totally agree. Without multiple 3-point shooters we were not going to get very far last year. I think DM has tried to address our weaknesses from last year.

It's preseason and I'm very optimistic about the season!

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:12 pm

The NEC, as a whole, shot 33.3%. Only Nehls (37%), Batiste (37%), and Cumberlander (36.5%) were at or above average. And even that misrepresents how bad it really was- Cumberlander was terrible from deep at the beginning of the season and came on late. And Batiste only took 38 3's. (For what it's worth, Bowles was 6 for 18 (33.3%), Pierre was 2 of 6, and Kay was 40% (4 of 10). Small sample sizes apply there. Only Austin Nehls was in the top 20 in three point attempts.

This season? There are a number of players who conceivably shoot >33.3% from three on > 4 3P attempts per 40 mins:
Nehls- duh.
Kohl- He's not just a three point shooter, but it should be a big part of his game.
Hugley- according to the coaching staff, he can "shoot the bejesus out of the ball" (NYC Buckets).
Camacho- I've heard he's not JUST a PG, and will be good enough from the outside to play off the ball.
Batiste- only averaged 2.2 three point attempts per 40 last year. I doubt that gets up to 4, but anything is possible.
Hicks- NERR described Hicks as a "skilled wing who shoots the ball well from the three-point line".
Chris Williams- Likes to shoot it (5.7 3PA per 40), but struggled as a freshman (24%).
Kay- I doubt he'll play a ton, but if/when he does, we know he will shoot it.
Laney- Came in with a reputation as a shooter. 7 for 38 in two seasons (18%) doesn't garner much hope, but maybe something clicked during the off-season.
Bowles- a career 37.5% three point shooter in only 24 attempts in two years (1.3 per 40) could take a step forward at least enough to keep the defense honest.


Jones and Bute are obviously not going to be shooting from the outside. And from what I've heard, Talek Williams, at least this year, will be more of a defender/rim attacker than a shooter.

But DM will have the opportunity to mix and match lineups so that there is never less than 3 capable shooters on the floor at one time.

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by hilltopper » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:23 pm

Hugley- according to the coaching staff, he can "shoot the bejesus out of the ball"
I like the description and the wording. I like that a lot! :D

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:32 pm

Something called the College Court Report published their "NON-POWER FIVE GUARDS WHO WILL BE HOUSEHOLD NAMES IN 2017-18: SOPHOMORES, PART THREE" yesterday (Donyell Marshall re-tweeted it, which is the only reason I'm aware of it). Yeah it's very niche-y (non power five, guards, sophomores, 3 parts!!!), but hey, any publicity is good publicity right?

Within it, our own Tyson Batiste made the "Five More to Keep an Eye On", and Donyell Marshall tweeted "...Has def put (sic) in the work this summer".

Obviously Batiste is the only CCSU player eligible for a list such as this, as he's the only sophomore guard on the roster. I'm not sure he'll become a household name, but I think there are minutes for him at positions 1-3. Especially if he can repeat that aggressiveness from late last season. He was one of the few backcourt players who seemed comfortable taking the ball into the paint. Yeah, he needs to finish better (44% at the rim is not great), but with more shooters on the floor, he may have more of an opportunity to drive the ball.

He's really the only player we have that can play the 1, 2, and 3. I'm not sure he's a starting PG (he turned the ball over quite a bit as a freshman), and I'm not sure he can shoot well enough to start at the wing. But he does a little bit of everything, and reminds me of a left handed Shemik Thompson early in his career (wasn't quite a PG, but struggled a bit with his shot early on). I think it's likely he'll be one of the first players off the bench this season.

Edit: here is the link https://collegecourtreport.com/2017/10/ ... art-three/

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:05 am

Kenpom released its pre-season rankings over the weekend. Our CCSU Blue Devils check in at #342 (out of 351 D1 schools). Last of the 10 NEC schools. Hooray!

Now, before you get worked up, keep in mind that these rankings should be taken with a basketball sized grain of salt. It mostly factors in last season's data, and the returning players from last year's teams. It doesn't (as far as I'm aware) factor in newcomers (I think it does include Top 100 recruits, but not newcomers at our level). Our squad will be relying heavily on newcomers (Kohl, Hugley, Bute, Camacho in major ways, and T. Williams and Hicks in probably bench roles). So, yeah, I'd put a lot more stock in the various publications that have released pre-season rankings, and I'd put even more stock in the NEC pre-season coaches poll (this week??).

It's also ranked the NEC 30th out of 32 conferences, which seems realistic. The AE is #22, for reference.

Kenpom projects CCSU to finish 8-23 (5-13 in the NEC). They are favored to win 4 games: Coppin St., NC A&T, Maine, and SFNY (at home, final game of the season). It gives them a 0.2% chance of going winless in NEC play. FWIW, kenpom projects Hartford as a 9 point favorite in the opener.

This is how it ranks the NEC:
1. SFPA (12-6)
2. FDU (11-7)
3. MSM (11-7)
4. LIU (10-8)
5. Wagner (9-9)
6. SHU (9-9)
7. Bryant (8-10)
8. RMU (8-10)
9. SFNY (7-11)
10. CCSU (5-13)

I could certainly see the Blue Devils finishing with kenpom's projected record. Kohl doesn't work out, the injury bug hits, etc. But I wouldn't PREDICT that record. I'd definitely take the over on 5 NEC wins.

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by Larryl9797 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:56 am

Kenpom makes its predictions on past data and performance..... Past data on CCU Hoops is a flaming pile of garbage.CCU stats are in the losing column pretty much across the board its no wonder that they are "Predicted" in 10th PLace. I am going full Positive Panda this season and predicting that CCU hoops will reverse a bunch stats.
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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by CCSU4-3 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:24 pm

Larryl9797 wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:56 am
Kenpom makes its predictions on past data and performance..... Past data on CCU Hoops is a flaming pile of garbage.CCU stats are in the losing column pretty much across the board its no wonder that they are "Predicted" in 10th PLace. I am going full Positive Panda this season and predicting that CCU hoops will reverse a bunch stats.
All true.

Important to remember difference between projection and prediction. Projection is from an algorithm. Prediction is someone's opinion about what will happen.

Projections this early in the season for college basketball are (mostly) noise. I mean, intuitively, it's easy to assume that teams who bring back better players will be better. And that works for the power conferences, especially when you can fold in recruiting rankings. It's not perfect, but it's a pretty good proxy.

At this level though? The algorithms don't know the difference between our freshman 2-star PG and, say, Bryant's freshman 2-star PG. Or our JUCO SF and RMU's JUCO SF.

We return one above average NEC player (Nehls), an average-ish player (Mustafa), and a few role/bench guys (Batiste, Bowles). I can see how we're on the lower spectrum of D-1. Who knows what the newcomers will be, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get the most production from first year players of any NEC team. Will that lead to wins? Anyone's guess.

EDIT: just found this straight from the kenpom site regarding last year's preseason rankings: "...It doesn't try to project playing time for individual players. It doesn't know about transfers, and all but 5-star recruits are virtually ignored. If you think your favorite team is ranked too low, the reason is probably that there are really good transfers or recruits arriving".

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Re: NYC Buckets Preview

Post by Larryl9797 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:26 pm

Also, If you havnt read Ryans full hoops preview you should do so here --> http://www.nycbuckets.com/2017/09/34-pr ... more-28747

He sums up the CCSU angst pretty well and even though he doesn't do a full conference outlook ( maybe it will be coming in a few weeks) .
I think if you read between the lines, hes saying CCU will make the playoffs somewhere in the 5-8 position but miss out on a Playoff home game (to which I agree with ) I think we will be seeing much better play and more home Wins. *amen* You will be seeing much more of the style of play that DM is trying to achieve.
*edit* I think Ryans prediction whatever it is will be alot closer to reality then any projection. Its just to hard and there isnt enough data before the season to be accurate. Ryan knows the NEC for sure.
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